Q and A: Does AIDS have a significant impact on population growth?
Yes. The high degree of HIV prevalence worldwide has had a dramatic impact on population growth rates. In the early 1990s, few experts predicted the current level of HIV/AIDS cases. In fact, many believed that AIDS would have little or no impact on population growth. At that time, it was difficult to predict or imagine that there would be any country with more than 25 percent of the population ages 15 to 49 infected with HIV.
Since the bubonic plague of the 14th century, no epidemic has had as strong an influence on population growth as HIV/AIDS. The plague, or Black Death, killed an estimated 25 million to 35 million people in Europe alone, a number that represented approximately one-third of its population. According to recent estimates by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health Organization (WHO), 34.3 million people are living with HIV in 2000. An estimated 18.8 million people have died from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic.
Percent of world's HIV/AIDS cases, 1999
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Percent of world population, 2000
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Sources: UNAIDS, Report on Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic, 2000; and Population Reference Bureau, 2000 World Population Data Sheet.
In some regions, the impact of AIDS has been more pronounced. In sub-Saharan Africa, 24.5 million adults and children are living with HIV/AIDS. This represents 71 percent of the global HIV/AIDS cases (see chart, "Percent of world's HIV/AIDS cases,"). In 16 countries in this region, at least one out of every 10 adults is HIV positive. In seven of these 16 countries, one adult in five is living with HIV/AIDS.
The AIDS epidemic has nearly erased the improvements in life expectancy achieved in the last 20 years. The UNAIDS/WHO report notes that the most direct impact has been the increase in the overall number of deaths. In South Africa, mortality patterns of adults are much higher than they would have been if AIDS were not so prevalent. HIV/AIDS has also caused a decrease in life expectancy in some places. In Southern Africa, life expectancies in 2010 will fall to levels of only 30 years of age — levels that existed at the beginning of the 20th century. Infant and child mortality rates in some countries are higher than they would have been without AIDS. In Zimbabwe, AIDS causes 70 percent of the deaths among children less than 5 years of age.
HIV/AIDS is also affecting the population composition of many places. The pyramid that is used to model the age and sex structure of a population is projected to look more like a chimney in these countries, as large numbers of adults over 30 die. The base of the pyramid is also less broad, as more women become infected and have fewer children. The base of the pyramid will narrow. In 20 years, there may be more people ages 60 to 80 than ages 40 to 60. The result of a new age and sex structure for some populations will be lower growth rates and possibly declining populations. Global population is still projected to increase despite the disease since birth rates remain high and growth rates in most places continue to be positive. The greatest impact of HIV/AIDS is that the rate of growth is now lower.
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