For Immediate Release: Jan. 30, 2006
Contact: Mary M. Kent, 202-939-5418, mkent@prb.org; Carl Haub, 202-939-5415, chaub@prb.org.
(Washington, DC) World population today is almost four times its size in 1900. Behind that phenomenal global increase is a vast gulf in birth and death rates among the world's countries. But this gulf is not a simple divide that perpetuates the status quo among the have and have-not nations.
"What is worrisome about this demographic divide is not the differences among nations' population growth rates, but the disparities associated with these trends—disparities in living standards, health, and economic prospects," says Mary Kent, co-author along with Carl Haub, of a new Population Reference Bureau report, "Global Demographic Divide."
Kent, editor of the Population Bulletin, and Haub, a senior demographer at PRB, write that news of declining population in Europe fueled concern about a global "birth dearth," but there is continuing population growth in developing countries. Which demographic trend is the world facing?
"The reality is that both trends are occurring," says Haub. "The dramatic fertility decline during the 20th century coincided with improved health, access to family planning, economic development, and urbanization." But the forces that prompted women in most of the world to limit their fertility have not gained traction in many sub-Saharan African countries and a number of countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. In most of these societies children have been highly valued for their labor and for support in old age. Women in many high-fertility countries still prefer to have three or more children.
Most countries will experience population growth between 2005 and 2050, as the world adds a projected 3 billion people to the current world population total of 6.4 billion. And the high population-growth countries, such as Nigeria, are least likely to meet the basic health, education, and social goals for 2015 promoted by the United Nation's Millennium Development Goals. These countries have endemic health problems, high illiteracy, and low incomes.
Remarkably, despite the many new developments over the past 50 years, one fact looks very much the same, write Kent and Haub: Populations are growing most rapidly where such growth can be afforded the least. In that way, the story has changed little.
Read the full report, Global Demographic Divide. The authors will present major findings from this report in a PRB Webcast scheduled for Feb. 21, at www.prb.org. For more information, contact Ellen Carnevale, director of communications, 202-939-5407, ecarnevale@prb.org.