PRB

In 2024, there was an uptick in alarmist news stories about falling fertility, with some decrying a “baby bust.” It’s true that in many countries, fertility rates continued their decades-long slide; in the United States, the 2023 provisional total fertility rate was just 1.62 births per woman, marking a historic low. Yet globally, there were twice as many births as deaths in 2024, and the total fertility rate remained just above replacement level.

Whether one finds these facts troubling is a matter of perspective. Regardless, hot takes on the implications of such population data are rampant, especially on social media, and sometimes point to questionable “solutions.” One antidote for one-sided takes and disinformation is high-quality data from trusted sources that provide nuanced analysis.

Here, we offer five facts and trends that broke through the noise for us in 2024.

1. The world continues to grow older, with no sign of change.

Globally, 10% of the population is ages 65 and older. In 2024, more than half of European countries had more deaths than births, with one-fifth of the region’s population over age 65. In the United States, Baby Boomers are no longer the largest generational cohort, yet they still constitute nearly 69 million people. By 2050, 23% of the U.S. population is projected to be over age 65.

2. Children are the future, but they are an increasingly smaller share of the world’s population.

The Asia-Pacific region may be a bellwether for what’s down the road for aging countries. At present, 15 countries there have replacement or below-replacement fertility. With fewer children being born, the region is projected to have more adults ages 65 and older than children under age 15 by the mid-2040s. One major exception is sub-Saharan Africa; home to the world’s highest regional fertility rate, its youthful population could shape the future global workforce.

3. Immigration is helping many countries stave off population loss.

Between 2023 and 2024, the U.S. population grew by close to 1% to over 340 million people, and 84% of this growth is attributed to international migration. Half of the U.S. foreign-born population is from Latin America, and half of the nearly 10.8 million young people ages 14 to 24 who are immigrants or live in immigrant families identify as Hispanic or Latino. In Europe, the future population size of the region and countries within it will likely depend on international migration.

4. Unpaid care work is estimated to be 9% of global GDP—and 76% of it is performed by women.

Care work is essential yet remains devalued and invisible in most policy conversations. Including unpaid care work in our calculations of economic value and in our policy conversations could help improve the well-being of girls and women around the world; here’s an example of work on this front from Francophone West Africa.

5. Social connections and robust networks are increasingly tied to our overall health and well-being.

New research shows that older adults with the most supportive relationships age one to two years slower than those without such ties. And other evidence shows that training community health workers to identify and monitor high blood pressure among their fellow community members improves hypertension care in countries across the globe, from Pakistan to the United States.

Solutions are complicated, and what may work well for governments, businesses, families, and individuals are often framed as being in conflict. In today’s noisy world, thoughtful evidence and insights are needed perhaps more than ever before to move us toward programs and policies that work for many rather than just a few.

We hope you’ll follow PRB in 2025 as we continue to serve as a touchpoint for unbiased facts and analysis and a champion for high-quality population data.