PRB

The current growth of the population ages 65 and older, driven by the large baby boom generation—those born between 1946 and 1964—is unprecedented in U.S. history.

This aging of the U.S. population has brought both challenges and opportunities to the economy, infrastructure, and institutions.

Demographic Shifts

The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to increase from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050 (a 47% increase), and the 65-and-older age group’s share of the total population is projected to rise from 17% to 23%.¹

The U.S population is older today than it has ever been. Between 1980 and 2022, the median age of the population increased from 30.0 to 38.9, but one-third (17) of states in the country had a median age above 40 in 2022, with Maine (44.8) and New Hampshire (43.3) at the top of the list.²

The older population is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. Between 2022 and 2050 the share of the older population that identifies as non-Hispanic white is projected to drop from 75% to 60%.³

The rising diversity among older Americans can’t match the rapidly changing racial/ethnic composition of those under age 18, creating a diversity gap between generations. In 2022, fewer than half of children ages 0 to 17 (49%) were non-Hispanic white.⁴ But research shows that there is fluidity in how people identify with racial/ethnic categories: Mixed-race Americans (particularly mixed Hispanic and white) increasingly see themselves as part of the white majority.⁵

Positive Developments

Education levels are increasing. Among people ages 65 and older in 1965, only 5% had completed four years of college or more. By 2023, this share had risen to 33%.⁶

Older adults are working longer. By 2022, 24% of men and about 15% of women ages 65 and older were in the labor force. These levels are projected to rise further by 2032, to 25% for men and 17% for women.⁷

The poverty rate for Americans ages 65 and older has dropped sharply during the past 50 years, from nearly 30% in 1966 to 10% today.⁸ The Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure, which accounts for non-cash benefits, tax credits, and medical expenses, shows that 14% of older Americans lived in poverty in 2022.⁹

More older adults can meet their daily care needs. Older adults are functioning better on their own, and a shrinking share are living in nursing homes and assisted living settings than a decade ago. Home modifications and assistive devices such as walkers have helped older Americans maintain their independence.¹⁰

Challenges

Gains in life expectancy recently stalled. U.S. life expectancy at birth declined by 2.4 years between 2019 and 2021.¹¹ The drop in life expectancy was driven largely by the COVID-19 pandemic, but deaths from drug overdoses, heart disease, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and suicide also played a role.¹² Life expectancy rebounded slightly in 2022, to 77.5 years, but not enough to offset the decline during the pandemic.

Obesity prevalence among older Americans has increased at an alarming rate. In a single generation—between 1988-1994 and 2015-2018—the share of U.S. adults ages 65 and older with obesity nearly doubled, increasing from 22% to 40%.¹³

Wide economic disparities are found across different population subgroups. Among adults ages 65 and older, 17% and 18% of those identifying as Latino and African American, respectively, lived in poverty in 2022—more than twice the rate of those who identified as non-Hispanic white (8%).¹⁴

More older adults are divorced compared with previous generations. The share of divorced women ages 65 and older increased from 3% in 1980 to 15% in 2023, and for men from 4% to 12% during the same period.¹⁵

More older women are living alone. Over one-fourth (27%) of women ages 65 to 74 lived alone in 2023. This share jumped to 39% among women ages 75 to 84, and to 50% among women ages 85 and older.¹⁶

Older Americans face a caregiving gap, especially those with lower incomes and dementia.¹⁷ Demand for elder care is expected to increase sharply with a rise in the number of Americans living with Alzheimer’s disease, which could more than double by 2050 to 13 million, from 6 million today.¹⁸

Social Security and Medicare expenditures will increase from a combined 9.1% of gross domestic product in 2023 to 11.5% by 2035 because of the large share of older adults.¹⁹

Federal budget cuts and tax increases may be inevitable as more members of the large baby boom cohort reach retirement age and become eligible for entitlement programs. Policymakers can invest resources today to reduce poverty and improve the economic outlook for workers. These investments can increase young workers’ future productive capacity and help offset the costs of an aging population.